With 50 investments recorded in April, we saw a drop in the number of investments for the second consecutive month for the first time in over two years.
There’s an argument to be made for suggesting that we’ve reached a peak in terms of the number of investments a month, however I think it’s much more likely that we are just seeing the rate stabilise for now.
Firstly, it should be recognised that February’s 59 investments was an exceptional month, the best on record in fact (for the third month in a row) so it’s only natural that we may not see that surpassed immediately, but on the other hand, whenever there has been a drop following a peak, we’ve never seen two consecutive drops until now.
If we look back between March ’15 and September ’15 this was a six month period where the rate of investment was fairly stable, fluctuating between 21 and 28 investments per month (barring a slow April) before a steady rise from October 2015 until a couple of months ago.
The level of investments can be very cyclical especially when you consider that a lot of it depends on when the announcements are made, as often the investments themselves were made a couple of months ago, so what we see each month, is most of the time not in ‘real-time’. This could to some extent explain the slight drop as the majority of the investments in March and April were likely made at the beginning of the year, when concerns about the market were at their highest.
The peak will eventually come, but I don’t think we are there yet, nor do I think this is a real slowdown, I’d suggest that we may now be set for a similar period as we saw last year where investments per month will sit around the 50 mark for a while as investment levels begin to level out, before things likely pick up again as market concerns continue to ease.