By looking at the last 1000 investments that have been announced in the region, we can get a better sense of the pace of investment right now by comparing the length of time that each 100 investments took place over.
The last 100 investments in the region have occured over 52 days, the slowest pace since 8th June – 15th August 2016, during the infamous Nordic summer break.
Yesterday, we pointed out that no Nordic country has seen any growth in investment in 2017 compared to the same point in 2016, but by looking at the investments in batches of 100 across the region we can get a better sense of the speed of which investment has slowed down.
What’s particularly interesting is that the last 100 investments, there were only four batches that were slower, and these periods were the summer of 2016, the start of 2016 and the summer of 2015.
The fact that the start of 2016 was also one of the slowest does offer some solace, however as we demonstrated yesterday and in our January analysis, there’s still no growth happening compared to similar points of previous years.
What this demonstrates without doubt is that investment certainly has slowed down, however, I would suggest that the evidence points more towards a ‘levelling out’ rather than a complete slowdown.
It’s worth putting this in further context though, as when we first looked at this type of analysis in March of last year, we were reporting 56 days as evidence that the rate of investments was faster than ever, and 4x faster than just 2 years previous.
It may seem churlish to be calling a similar number as evidence that things aren’t as rosy just one year on, but that very analysis also serves as proof that things haven’t developed much since then. As investment levels have gone through the roof in recent years, we may have become accustomed to growth after growth, but at some point things will naturally level out, and that moment may well be now.